September 2014 Commentary

30th September 11:15am that was an excellent run it is looking more promising. The XGD ended up overbought on the shorter intra-day charts and even up to 10min tick the RSI hit 83.86. Seeing as gold did nothing particularly spectacular over the weekend I view this with potential. 2653.5 was only short term resistance.
27th 12:33pm we have to make a server change here this afternoon and so the site will be briefly down.
So far the systems are showing great promise and some stocks, eg SLR and RSG have already firmed up. Gold is looking lively too at present. I do not expect the XGD to launch immediately this is not how this works but I may do some more cautious buying today or Monday depending on any potential lift to confirm I am right.
27th 12:01pm we may have just witnessed a low on the XGD for the time being. This is what my systems are telling me and we now need confirmation with a rise. 2579.5 is very close if I am out here but I wait for a reversal to see if this inverts into a new push down.
Of course I hold off purchases in the Funds here while I await the signals. If you like you can watch the 40 time periods on the XGD in different time frames to see if we get above this important MA. The daily is the senior chart for this indicator.
27th September 9:56am gold bias is up still according to my systems but I have to wait still to see if I am right or wrong on this rally. Newsletter is up now in that area. Gold is 30 and XGD is 40 please see my work on this. We can use this as an additional guide on direction.
26th 6:05pm gold held so far and the XGD had a mediocre day to say the least. I am completing NL 91 and will load it tonight it contains more education on the XGD. As I said the XGD still has upside bias but it all depends on gold tonight and from this level as we are near critical support on the dialy. It is all covered in the Newsletter.
26th September 10:41am 40 is the harmonic on the XGD try putting in that as a moving average on the weekly, daily and even intraday charts. We are ranging at this time on the daily rising above and falling back below the 40dma.
As I said more upside but the market is not convinced. Some stocks like SLR have a direct correlation to gold and the king of metals broke that short term resistance last night climbing over the 1330 level.
I call this a ‘correction’ because I am not convinced after that last system reversal to the upside. This is also a daily observation as the low on the RSI has not seen any buy signal as I would like.
25th market close the GoldOz systems tell me there is further upside in this correction. This is short term we seem to have found a trading range and my system should warn me which direction it will take ahead of the move.
25th September 1:19pm sorry I had a computer crash here this morning and then Power ETrade too. We got the lower XGD reading yesterday by 14 points, that was 172 minutes later see yesterdays comment. It triggered a weak signal to the upside which coincided with a rally today. This is all intraday but the interesting thing is the daily pattern – I am still not wrong there is a chance of a rally. I will keep you posted on the progress of this and the timing.
24th 11am OK that is a fail. Short term we are oversold so a bounce is expected however the probability now favors a deeper low in the coming hours or day. No reversal signal yet.
24th 10:44am the XGD might still surprise investors today we are at a pivot point however. The next 15min is critical with XGD at 2614.7
24th September 7:37am so the banks have been talking up the Fed taper they are looking for permission to keep their prop desks gambling with peoples money to support the bond market when the Fed exits. The unintended consequence is the gold market and yet gold held ground last night. It wants to recover judging from the chart but will they let it?
The XGD today looks like a quiet day in a range and should not violate the set up potentially pointing to a rise. We opened oversold yesterday and stayed there all day. We are still oversold so a bounce is due once again. Before I set any personal trade here I will need to see confirmation and a range of signals. I will watch this and report later.
Yesterday no sooner had I commented on the Fib retracement to 61.8%, and had just written in my Newsletter that 75% is not abnormal during such volatility, when it tested that level too. This is one frustration I face at times when the market is moving quickly, not to worry.
23rd 6:33pm gold bounced off the 75% Fib retracement level and made a higher high. Half of this happened after the close of trade here. Well I have another set up in this index but I was waiting for that essential confirmation. The close was flat indicating even the pro’s don’t know what is happening. We will see the outcome overnight as I refused to get whipsawed out on this volatility.
I was pleased to see AVB pull back some more for me to re-enter my position back and to keep a few sheckles in the kitty at the same time. I lightened at the right time as it was a resistance level and an important whole number (10).
23rd 10:22am gold pulled back almost exactly 61.8% of the rise off the short term low on the 18th. Is this weak hands being tested or was that just a play for options expiry day last Thursday?
German election signals more austerity to come. I am working on the next Newsletter right now to bring you some answers.
23rd September 10am it is normal for a pullback on a market turn even short term. I will come back to you shortly I am not selling this at the moment until I can work out what is happening. Note we are opening oversold here this morning.
20th September 9:42am gold has to consolidate and so do the shares. The daily chart of the XGD however is nowhere near overbought. I knew this from signals yesterday afternoon however I decided I did not want to create confusion causing anybody to sell this yet. Traders would have been out anyway.
I am just loading Newsletter 90 now.
19th 11am update the open was insane this morning as buy orders clogged the ASX computer system. As I said below I have to add now so I had orders to buy at market on the open. The index is overbought on a short term basis and could result in a slight pull back into lunch ahead of a higher close. The index was oversold at an extreme level (again) based on deception which I smelled yesterday as I had been calling for one additional leg and the GoldOz systems confirmed this.
FundB bought 80k EVN @ 87c, 80k SLR @ 85c, 100k SAR @ 24.5c, 100k RSG @ 67k, 80k BDR @ 80.5c, 20k AQG @ 3.60, and more just doing the tally now. As I said this is hectic this morning.
19th September 8am the set up I have been talking about is here. The timing yesterday was a rare perfect call. The fractal I have been talking about is playing out to perfection as well so I will illustrate this for you this morning.
I need to add now – see the 11am 16th Sept call below.
The Fed may not be able to taper until next month and that is if the numbers improve. I will release a half finished file I have been working on and then replace it with the finished item as I find time but this will be hectic today.
I expect the XGD could rally here as much as 50% and some stocks will do better. The resistances for this run are 3150, 3776 and 4090. I expect some stocks to do even better.
18th 3:36pm just off a conference call had buys triggered in FundA which is aggressive. Bought 47,900 SLR @ 77c, 56,000 RSG @ 64c, 54800 PRU @ 54.5c, 51,000 BDR @ 74c , 100k SAR @ 20.5c and 44,770 EVN @ 80c.
The buying in this last hour is an indicator of interest – perhaps I am right that the taper is priced in. Syria has not gone away either.
This is high risk but I am seeing a nice set up and prepared to buy back these stocks essentially cheaper than I had sold. The XGD is at historic lows and I need to keep a core position to recover the portfolio over time. The buying patterns today suggest the dip below 2600 which I had stated was needed – could be a turn for the run into October.
My latest research tells me the systems I use can be improved with a new strategy. More long term with a tweak along the way on a regular basis. I can thus keep you all informed about the regular moves up and down on this index in keeping with the Funds.
18th September 10am I smell deception here as gold is again sitting on a 4 day support line remember it was 1358 last week – this week it is just above 1300. There is again a set up for gold to rise but will it get smacked down again on the Fed taper?
I think it is priced in myself but that is only opinion.
The XGD is pointed again as a negative as indicated yesterday near the close of trade – stated here below. The behavior will be telling, if the fall is muted we are seeing buying and can suspect it will be sell the rumor buy the news. Back at the end of August the shares stopped rising with gold and a client asked if I had seen this. Yes of course it indicated profit taking ahead of a fall then and we are also looking for buying activity as an additional confirmation when the signals turn ahead of the next rally.
17th 3:50pm the fall has eventuated however the XGD is still respecting the support which rises under the run through July to now. We hit a double bottom today and the pattern has now changed – I am looking at a potentially supportive set up again. The rise today sets up the chance of a fall even to 2500 yet the fractal pattern is still intact. Sorry I cannot be more clear this is still evolving so a buy or stay out decision must be delayed yet again.
RRL put out a great result and will pay out $72M cash as a 15c dividend and the market did not like that pulling down the XGD a little. AQG holding support at $3 and SLR up slightly. But the pro’s are closing this weaker again so this indicated negativity.
17th September 9am the GoldOz systems still working and I have been working on de-bugging to improve this further. So now I analyze this fall for you all and come back with the verdict ahead of the next move. Will we need to head lower or will the normally positive September seasonal factor come into play and rally this index with gold.
Political influence is strong with Syria not going to go away. The fiscal influence is also strong ahead of the Fed decision; to taper or not to taper and if so by how much and how will the market digest this?
16th 3:49pm the same intra-day pattern is unfolding as the 6th – 9th September which preceded a fall on the XGD. The close will be telling over the next 20 min. A repeat of the pattern is not a conclusion yet. The duration and depth of any potential fall that follows would also be very telling. A final leg in this rally from late June is still possible.
16th September 11:01am the bounce is on. It appears my signals are working on a delayed timer of about one day at present. I am not yet sure if this is the beginning of a stronger run up past 3150 on the XGD or not. Time will show this ahead of the event.
I suspect this does not hold on this bounce but if it is stronger that will indicate the next drop short term could be the set of signals that will indicate a sustained run at least for a couple of weeks – a larger opportunity.
13th 10:45am update the XGD should bounce here however not for long – more down side is coming. On the daily we have a fractal with this fall now almost identical to the last minor correction. This is just curious and would fit with a temporary low about here. Powder is dry and intact waiting to deploy.
13th September 9am gold clearly broke down again with Goldman Sachs calling for $1300 – we are almost there already. This shows the value of waiting for that lift after the signals set up – this is the confirmation I speak of which is clearly a vital part of the system. Most of the cash is intact waiting for the next opportunity which I hope is not far away.
My suspicion is that the Fed will NOT taper right away due to the poor job figures and heavy down revisions of the June and July jobless rate.
12th 1:30pm bought back 95k SAR @ 21.5c both FundA and FundB. The GoldOz system is starting to flash but caution very early stage which could break down at any stage.
Unemployment up according to ABS and some commentators are surprised but not GoldOz as we have been calling that for some time.
12th 10:32am the system is still holding but weaker. The potential buy set up not yet confirmed and on the brink of breakdown. Still sitting waiting and watching this could still go either way.
12th September 8:40am I have studied the charts and my systems early again this morning – gold held the high 1350’s for the 4th time in 10 days last night. My system is not as reliable on gold as the XGD – probably due to greater market intervention. But the gold indicators are pointing up for what ever that is worth. The action on the XGD this morning will be important but it may sit flat today and bore me to tears too. I have held off the Ed Port update waiting to add the next set of buys but if quiet I will wrap and post it anyway.
You will notice I have said nothing about the election. Commiserations to the ALP and supporters. Congratulations to the Libs and their supporters. Mining and the economy will like this no matter what your view is, and I have stated why in the past. It is about the policy and process not the ideology.
11th on the close I need to see the XGD lift from here tomorrow to confirm a buy signal. If it falls the signal is broken – part of my system is the confirmation. The gold price overnight will set this in play.
11th 2:33pm I have been watching this perfect set up in the GoldOz system – just waiting for the confirmation and we should then rally above the 3150 level set on August 27th. I have set some conditional orders and will be aggressive on a few stocks IF I get the go ahead. This needs a lift on the XGD to confirm now.
11th September 8:03am OK that is why yesterday failed to confirm the Friday signal so I am carefully monitoring this market to bring you the next entry point.
On world markets the talking heads are claiming China is great, Europe is fixed and even Australian property is off the the races over the next few years – but this is just talking their book. Syria will not give up weapons, the debt markets simmer beneath the surface (yields) are there on false pretext. Beware the BS of all this it is false and a suck in for unwary investors.
10th September10:19am the signals on the XGD showed a weak reversal on Friday afternoon, not enough for me to call that but I did a test trade yesterday on the open – very small. The daily pattern did mimic a false turn last week as well and we saw the signals peter out as time went on yesterday.
This morning it is lifeless but the index does want to turn up – I await a clear signal in the intra-day to trade and a higher quality set of signals before I can call the resumption of the rally.
6th 11:11am update – we are seeing a weak bounce in this XGD however I remain unconvinced. GoldOz systems showing this as a bad day in this index and very glad to be holding 72.3% of original capital in FundB with also 60% of original capital in FundA. This is my fighting fund as I seek to time the next turn up into the final top of this rally. This short term pull back has not bottomed yet according to my systems, buyers are either building positions or bottom fishing.
6th September 8:30am this is what I have been saying – tapering QE hurts gold, taper will happen as the US appears to have turned. Of course the threat is imbalances in US due to municipal & sovereign debt – however until this blows up the economy is rising off a low base because they took the hard medicine. The debt markets are already starting to blow up – a slow motion train wreck. Europe did not take the hard medicine (only political responses mainly Germany – austerity) because the EMU is a group of diverse economies and cultures – a group of diverse debt markets because this was never resolved when the EMonetaryUnion was formed. As the good news flows out of the US (sporadic) gold comes under pressure. As money flows out of Asia and Europe into the USD for safety gold comes under pressure. Money is going home we are in a credit crisis.
Gold fell out of bed again last night – this is the GoldOz value proposition – we call the XGD movements so you can time the market with greater accuracy. We provide gold stock intelligence but no advice on stocks (or individual timing) for we do not have an AFSL.
This would push the cost too high for the broader group of investors seeking education on the economy, how markets work, capital flows, debt markets and the gold stocks – and how it all fits together.
5th 4:01 update still more down side on XGD short term according to GoldOz systems. I believe this index is looking for the next support level before heading higher through the rest of September but this is only opinion at this stage. The systems will show the truth as this develops.
5th 3:44pm gold fell out of bed again this afternoon taking the XGD down to 2876. The selling activity this morning and weak recovery intra-day warned of this. Professionals closing this market are they buying? Watch the closing strength here for a clue.
5th September10:15am gold fell overnight and the XGD is headed back towards 2900 as predicted by the GoldOz systems. Ultra-short-term this index was oversold on the open so it bounced – I have to wait and see how this is heading so I will come back to you later in the day on this.
The top performers list is coming close to completion – PRU now marginal has to be removed. BDR a standout will do well the next two quarters if things continue to be smooth.
I spoke at length to Don Taig yesterday on missing the Barrick target and he will soon release the long awaited direction for the company. He does not consider this market sensitive as they are not in production and will not return to that status until he can assure the market they will not return to the hand to mouth (feed the mill) cycle they had been stuck in. Shandong still very supportive and he will remain as acting CEO to see this to fruition which is good news. It will be about delivery / execution and exploration success with possible surprises not disclosed – I was reading between the lines.
4th September 10:48am we have seen a bounce this morning however GoldOz systems still show no turn as yet short term. The XGD can track lower below the 2900 level and we shall see how far as this develops.
3rd 12:25pm there are just a few sell divergences showing up – e.g. OGC and RSG. The global credit crunch can blow up as fat tail events at any time I remain cautious but there will be fantastic money making opportunities again as the gold stocks find their launch point – when the leverage will be optimum. I continue to hear about German and other European banks selling up assets in Asia and Australia. Some analysts are missing the severity of this brewing storm.
3rd September 11:57am looking at this XGD after its 200 point extension rally to 3150. The low so far at 2885 must be exceeded so await ready to let you know when my systems clear the next entry. It looks like September can be a useful time to make some more money here. The index fell as I suggested it would back on the 23rd – and I have not seen a fresh entry point as yet. Offshore investors may wait until the election is over to see who really wins.