August 2014 Commentary

29th August 10:30am been on the road of late and haven’t had the internet speed I expected. Will be back in the office on the weekend – Ratings Table almost finished and will be available next week.
23rd August 11am my systems telling me the XGD is rolling at present and that this is not an entry point. The XGD looks ready to head lower then the current level I will keep you posted. Reports well underway – most covered and adding an important new table in the Ratings product for you at present.
21st August 11am update isn’t this amazing – sentiment has turned on the gold stocks. The correlation to spot gold has been strong the last 5 weeks. Gold and some of the indicators turning down on XGD stocks but stocks pushing higher still.
The 6 month 1 hours tick chart shows gold up near the upper down channel line. Any decent fall in gold here will send these stocks lower – margins are fine at these levels and any lower creates a serious threat.
I am happy to wait this out for now as nothing goes up in a straight line. I look forward to turning bullish on these gold stocks once we get that buy divergence on the daily chart of the XGD.
The Ratings Tables are nearly done.
19th August 10:12am sold 80k SAR in both Funds @ 25c.
I am sorry I missed so much of this rise it has been an average performance at best. My intra-day systems show further upside although overbought once again. These short pull backs can be traded intra-day.
On the daily chart the XGD has pushed to a new RSI since the end June low. With the current work load on the reports all I can do is await the next pull back.
16th 10:44am intra-day indicators are still weakening – they tend to do this gradually on a stronger move. The next short term top will be reached soon I believe and after the following correction I will review – probably re-enter then for another trade. Let your profits build through the year and over time it is better to miss some profits than to make losses.
16th 10:25am decided not to trade this as we are just below the resistance I mentioned below at 2818.3 on the XGD. At least I called the last low correctly and took profits. SAR – still at 25c did not move that, selling half of positions. I will wait for the next buy signal now and suffer rising prices / missed opportunity beause I am risk averse. This still may form a short term sell set up and throw a new opportunity in the coming week or two. I do not have tome to screen watch while I am updating the Ratings Tables.
16th August 9:35am sorry I got that completely wrong this week. Gold pushes on so aggressive trades go back on with gains missed. I am moving my sell on SAR higher this was a great recovery but do not think we are back in a bull market for gold – we are not yet but as I have said these rallies are great trading. I have made excellent gains for the funds and personally since the 8th of August.
15th 10:33am FundB sold 57,500 BDR @ 79.5c, I may not be capturing the entire move but rebuilding capital with minimal exposure is the strategy now. I believe we have more opportunities the same as the last week in the next four weeks.
15th August 10:16am FundB sold 5,900 AQG @ 2.93. I am looking for a reversal pattern today or tomorrow with the XGD pushing up to the 2818.3 low in late May (resistance).
Intra-day the XGD is very overbought after 5 days up, so I believe this morning is a suckers buy this morning in the short term.
I have set a sell on SAR @ 25c for half of the positions (both Funds)- that I will trade if successful.
14th 11:56am yesterday was quiet but held up despite gold falling off a little. Today my systems are telling me the pause turns into the small pull back – the daily XGD however still has no sell divergence. This can run higher after the small correction. I am locking some profits / trades here this morning.
FundA sold 30k BDR @ 77c, 42k EVN @ 86c, 53k PRU @ 57c, 10k RRL @ 3.635, 44k SLR @ 84c
FundB sold 23,300 EVN @ 86c, 11,527 OGC @ 1.87, 54k PRU @ 57c, 21,798 RRL @ 3.635, 47k SLR @ 84.
Still holding AQG with sell order have to go out will see how I went this afternoon.
SAR has run with power, will be a prime target and glad I held.
Still working on the Ratings Tables the rest of the week and next week so limiter Newsletter during this period. Buried in reports.
12th 2:53pm XGD overbought now, can continue a little and will do so after a pause or small pull back. I am letting my position run for now.
It is report time I am buried – updating the Ratings Tables.
12th August 10:11am No sign of duress in XGD intra-day so perhaps this runs today as well. Gold may need a pause but this can run into tomorrow too. Will keep an eye on it but happy with the new positions at this stage.
8th 3:52pm Gold a little overbought on intra-day however it looks like some more upside running into next week. I am holding the reduced core position on this basis, called the turn with precision this time. Can I call the reversal and it might even be higher than the last small XGD top on the 25th July – with a sell divergence(?). It touched a support under the lows in the current range this morning and bounced which is a good sigh short term.
Gold can track in a range sideways between the black trend lines in NL89 – maybe a couple of months but caution is required.
8th 12:16 tally FundB bought 47k SLR @ 67.5c, 54k PRU @ 51c, 57,500 BDR @ 66c, 5,900 AQG @ 2.35, 21,798k RRL @ 3.21, 11,527 OGC @ 1.525, 23,300 EVN @ 73.5
8th 12:13pm FundA sold 200k AVB @ 9.7c just under resistance will buy back if it falls back.
8th 11:56am sorry been on phone not tallied FundA yet (same stocks). Bought 42k EVN @ 73.5c, 30k BDR @ 65.5c
8th 11:29am for the bounce – FundA bought 53k PRU @ 51c, 44k SLR @ 68c, 10k RRL @ 3.22. Will tally up other purchases and report shortly.
Note: strong recovery in AVB & NTU
8th August 10:40am there was nothing to add this morning pre-open as I called it right. Gold bounced off that lower channel line for now but indicators are weak to neutral. I do not expect a clear indication today, rather into next week.
The XGD is already marginally lower with a weak bounce in progress. The urge is to buy back the core positions that are now cheaper. I will do my best to time these but is will be limited for now. I am doing the list of sales now.
7th 10:38am update bad news indicators suggesting that even with a bounce the XGD has lower to go in coming days. Trading opportunity if you have enough experience and a live screen but could be lower even today.
7th August gold has now almost fallen to the lower line of the main channel (red lines) see NL89 released last night page 1.
Now the weakness can spill into the XGD which is getting very oversold (again) in the intra-day charts. I will update you on this later if the gold fall follows through into the index. The RSI on the daily chart is neutral at present.
It was remiss of me to ignore the Chinese audit underway perhaps – the credit situation in China a big concern.
6th 4:24pm I have not bought back because the signals are still poor. I am watching this like a hawk. Newsletter nearly done.
Close on XGD stocks lousy volume and slight drops below the final trades – the pro’s telling us further downside. That was one weak finish!
The 30 min chart is getting very oversold again however the level perhaps reached tomorrow will show me the direction short term. A bounce is always on when this set up happens however the turn on this potential bounce here is not there yet! So how weak will show me if this fall keeps going and how attractive my re-entry will be.
6th August 8:29am on discussion with a client – beware this is not like 2008 which was a mid parabolic correction. The personality of this correction is more like 1975 – 1976 which was in between two parabolas. The XGD is this low because of NCM make no mistake. It made $16.45 in October 2008, this correction so far at $9.06. The market cap dominates the XGD so most of the plunge below the 2008 low to date was NCM.
I am working to bring you a big picture update and short term zoom in for gold – out tonight unless things develop and I need to add more with urgency.
5th August market open XGD oversold on intraday charts but technically weak. In other words we bounce but will probably head lower after that.
2nd 3:45pm looks like I redeemed myself – yes this week was telling, yes the XGD dived after supports broken, ditto gold – yes hawkish Fed speech was a correct assessment as well. Now to make use of this I have to be more right and this is not so easy. I have to time re-entry to be able to claim this as a true win. There is nothing bullish in any signal I see yet so stand aside and wait until you see the whites of their eyes before pulling any trigger.
2nd August 11:10am I am starting to look strategically correct as the XGD rolls over. A move below 2577 would be a negative as the RSI on the 30 min tick chart is already weak – so further falls possible despite the lack of sell divergence the XGD. It just formed another bear flag over a 1 month period. I hope I am wrong on this. The strategy of selling into the last 3 small rises was to buy back additional shares for the same capital. In some cases I will also re-weight.
Gold support is 1300 and resistance 1308 this morning.
IGO is ahead on the commissioning process but pretty tight on cash levels. The Ni operations and Jaguar (VMS deposit see NL88) performing well however far less robust that they were previously. This is a risk area for the company I will wait to see how the commissioning goes – the tight cash position would become a problem if this does not go smoothly. I am not saying they are in trouble this is a risk / reward issue and I am risk averse here. We have time with gold so no rush this may not be cash positive for up to 6 months.
1st August the FOMC meeting was basically a neutral event if not slightly hawkish in tone and good for the USD. The AUD fell and surprisingly gold is slightly up. This market has an unreal feel to it at present and we should soon see why.