March Commentary

28th March 3:08pm and down comes NCM. My original warnings come to fruition and the brief improved outlook finally reveals the truth. This is behind the hammering of the gold sector today from 2pm. Even RRL took a hit, most early gains wiped from the sector as NCM set investor sentiment on the negative. The final fall may be here at last we shall see how this picture unfolds in the coming week or two. I have been warning about this and holding back. Time to intensify research to update the portfolio in line with current and most recent changes in the sector. I am glad to see the bad news is out at last!

27th March 7:30pm I am back and the ‘book talk up’ I warned against was a good call at least for now. No move in gold or stocks other than down, as suggested by GoldOz the bottom was not in yet. After a flat price move the XGD has failed to gain traction however a buy signal set up is possible here. I am still holding that cash and am ready to move. Confidence in the banking system is shocked and perhaps a delayed reaction. The gold stocks are certainly cheap relative to gold but we need a catalyst. As I have said Europe initially good for USD as money flows out and this is negative for gold and gold stocks!

25th March 11:27am this is getting boring! No volatility as the XGD bounces up at the lows of 2012 in a narrow band. The RSI is sitting just below 50 now. Gold looking rudderless like the ALP. I am off to Canberra for a day or two will still keep my eye on the market and report if necessary. There is no point guessing we need some movement to confirm direction at this important point.

20th March gold has confirmed this divergence and so has the XGD so the bounce I have called should gather increased strength. Europe is helping. This is not the start of the rally yet in my opinion however it is setting up a useful RSI spike from which a larger divergence can form. In the meantime enjoy a lift and let us see if I can warn you when the bounce is completing. Trading income is fantastic in these situations so enjoy if this is your strategy, as it is mine while I await the next pull back. RRL is still my favorite and I am looking at RSG for trade opportunities.

19th March the world waits to see if an important perception (mainstream) on banking will be smashed in Europe. Gold up a tad and XGD is trading according to my sentiment; “which way will it go”. On a personal basis I am trading while I wait to see. The RSI on the XGD is more enthusiastic than the index price having me suspect the break will be to the upside. We are not in the clear yet I hope you are all holding cash and have been since I sold down back in October. It is essential to be nimble in this market at present.

15th March the FML deal to secure the rest of the former CRE is a done deal with Stone and this will force the roll over of the other holders. This releases a $50M (approx) net tax loss for future use and secures over 400k ounces Au for $6M. More importantly it removes one uncertainty. Watch DT march through all outstanding issues in this manner and prove a trend to the market over time. I have personally added more FML at a share price under cash in the bank, happy to do so and note – no fear they are not going into administration with $200M in the bank.
I am waiting for confirmation on the gold price before I more to a fully invested position or sell quickly to enable more purchases on a pull back in the market.

12th March I have been providing more regular Newsletters so as to remain up to date however today I see the bounce I have been expecting is pathetic. There has to be a reason. There is extreme risk in this market of a sharp capitulation on a run down to 1530 area. We have to see if this holds or not. Any bump up here might be used to lighten if you have no cash to take advantage of the bonanza to come.