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22nd 4:12pm on close sold 50k BDR @ 76c FundB
22nd 3:09 update I have taken nearly 50% of the original capital out in FundA ready for the next entry point.
Working on the numbers for FundB next. The stocks which recovered during this rally will be the prime targets. I will cover this in a Newsletter I am working on.
22nd 1:31pm update sold 30k EVN @ 80c FundA
22nd 11:49am update sold 30k EVN @ 77.5 FundB, 7k IGO @ $3.23 FundB, 30k OGC @ 1.63.
22nd 11:33am sold 40k EVN @ 78c FundA
22nd 11:27am gold is just below the low of 1321.2 (April 16th) so this is a resistance area. I want to cash up the volatility is increasing and short term indicators overbought.
Sold 20k BDR @ 74c FundA
July 22nd personally I sold that this morning. Remember the rises look just as enthusiastic as the falls look hopeless. This is what sucks in most investors. I am working hard to complete a file however will stop for a while to check for sell opportunities.
July 17th 9am The Fed speech was a continuation of the “dovish” (soft) stance on monetary policy meaning gold traded essentially sideways. A small sharp drop stalled with no follow through. The XGD and gold will continue to drift around until it finds a direction. I am listening to reports and interviews constantly here when not writing files to get across the issues.
FML came out with another shocker but their cash burn slows dramatically next quarter with $16M outgoing including $12M on lag over mining expenses. This means their cash burn slows to circa $5M in the December quarter. The interesting comment was on “taking control of their own destiny in Laverton with no mention of Barnicoat. Something is afoot it will be interesting to see if DT is successful.
PRU is getting punished for missing guidance by a very small amount and now not game to offer anymore than a wide guidance they feel they can easily achieve and who can blame them. The price is probably overdone however they are not a low cost producer, rather mid tier making them a better proposition than most but not in the top group.
July 16th 9:36pm the XGD has pulled back lightly the last two days. The volatility has died off for now and I expect the XGD to trend sideways to slightly up – basically in a range the next several trading days. I may buy back some stock and sell it quickly during this time as I have also sold some of what I would call a core position.
I will only move to fully invested after a further fall but the 1000 point drop from 3000 to 2000 on the XGD will hold for now. Gold and the XGD will trade lower if my systems hold.
July 15 pre-open the XGD failed to make the new intra-day top Friday after I left home so the final sales will have to be completed today. This could rally to the 2674 area which was the low of 2008 now resistance. The turn pattern cannot be a sharp V after such a prolonged collapse. I am confident this weakness continues especially in the light of events in Europe at present. We had a 900 point rally in September 2008 on massive buying before the XGD went even lower. That was very near the bottom.
July 12 11:18am XGD over bought to extreme and 50% of last drop almost covered. I believe a drop will be followed by a slightly higher high intra-day and have set sell offers in to complete selling on this counter rally. I have to go out and may miss some offers by being too high however I have a good amount of cash now to fight the next battle.
I am relieved that the buying has been so much stronger this indicates I can fully invest on the next fall and I am not talking within this range. I need to see the XGD comply with my system. Risk reward is not there at present with the crisis coming to the boil in the international banks.
July 12 10:56am sold 26609 OGC @ 1.545 av FundA, sold 8k IGO average 3.10 FundA. Sold 40k SLR @ 80c FundB
July 12 10:03am the Bernanke comments were more about Europe than the US as US banks are massively exposed. Europe is falling over the edge into the abyss as Italy is now almost junk rated – down to BBB a point just above where they will not be able to get funded. Portugal is the same. Think about how Greece went once this tipping point was reached.
We are back to the depths of 2008 (worse) here and money is coming out, capital being destroyed creating the desperation we see and this will return to our gold sector unfortunately. This is why I am a seller into this rally it will be another false one in another bear flag but at least the buying is more aggressive down at these levels so that shows we are getting closer to the bottom.
Closing comment: As one savvy client put it those with power use it ruthlessly. I believe this is a sucker rally because it is based on a Fed comment. If there is a further rise tomorrow it will be a chance to sell more. Probably next week we will be falling again and I can buy back a core position in some stocks. The main buying will be at lower supports. Short stops are going off this is too sharp too fast against the trend. Take care.
At close of trade sold 40k SLR @ 75.5 FundA and completed part sale 23,391 OGC @ 1.476 av FundA.
Before close sold 30k BDR @ 62c FundA and selling at auction. I do not think this lasts long.
12:48 sold 40k RSG 65.5c FundB
11:30 sold 45k SLR @ 73c FundA
10:47am sold 30k RSG @ 63.5 FundB
11th July another Fed comment inspired false move on markets is underway. Was Bernanke just referring to rates or QE as well? The XGD is in a tight trading range again and I hope it can register a strong RSI rise here and set up a buy signal on the reversal of the final fall in this phase. The rally in some stocks is strong and I am using this to lighten further. I do not trust Fed comment inspired rallies this is a distortion and probably short lived.
Sold B2Gold (was CGX) 11,250 shares at A$2.56.
11:51am sold 20k RSG @60.5c FundA
10:50am sold 30k RSG @ 60c FundA
10th July 10:43am sold 60k RSG @ 60c FundA for trade purposes.
10th July 9:45am gold failed to make a new intra-day high above the US1265 level and is now back in a new down channel. The bigger indicator was yesterday on the XGD which rallied from an initial drop to the break even level. This made it look like an up day as prices were rising on balance yet it closes essentially even – with gold up circa $30 an ounce. This is not bullish, patience a new low is coming in the XGD and fantastic re-entry opportunity.
Macro – money is coming out of Australia and like the Asian crisis people do not realize how much and for how long. This is creating the anomaly so we have to be patient and pick off the clear entry points on the market. That is different for individual stocks if you are a trader there are always profits intra-day to be made but be out by the close to avoid over night risk.
9th July 11:05am gold just spiked and I suspect too many people trying to short it so the big boys (who can see stop losses in their system) triggered them to enable them to increase their own shorts. Investing is not a level playing field but if you understand what is happening you can ignore the “noise” and even take advantage of it. I base my comments on evidence of large bank prop desks churning and burning their own clients – this is not a conspiracy theory it is documented fact. Look at the LIBOR scandal for e.g.
9th July 10:31am gold rolled short term and and recovered on price but not indicators. The bounce this morning did not even last 30 minutes. Some stocks making new lows due to fear. The failure to bounce today means that any real fall in gold will result in a violent sell off on stocks. I will advise when I see the re-entry opportunity as I too will be using that as a trade / capital preservation strategy for the Funds.
9th July 8:51am the stochastic is rolling over on spot gold intra-day which is not positive. The XGD is oversold on the intra-day however any small bounce looks very short term here. If today is a power day I will have to take a fresh look but for now I view this as a short term trade today not a re-entry point.
8th July 10:29pm note: updating worksheets from diary and found 2 additional sales on 4th in FundB, also adjustment on 5th the RRL sale was FundB only.
8th July 10:25am clearly a good move to sell last week enabling the Funds to pick up cheaper prices. It is difficult for traders to wait but the XGD tells me that we head below that last low so for now I will hold.
The large volatility down at these stupendously cheap levels makes for exciting trading. Some stocks 20% below where I sold last week already so I will be able to capture the rise another time at least – probably many times to rebuild capital down in these lows.
5th July 11:31am sold 10k RRL @ 3.55 in FundB
5th July 10:45am update I am not sorry I sold and that is because the intra-day signals are rolling over and looking weak. The US was closed last night of course so volatility has been light ahead of the opening of Asian markets. Gold is very quiet even though it has drifted below a trading channel and looks vulnerable when volatility returns.
I am looking to buy back just as aggressively when of should I say if I am right.
4th Update 1:45pm sold 10k RRL @ 3.44 FundA and 10k 3.455 average FundB
4th July 12:57pm all my intra-day systems pointing to this dead cat bounce failing shortly. The XGD made that new RSI low on June 26th so a lower low is highly probable.
On that basis I have sold:
FundA 10k RRL @ 3.40, 10k RRL @ 3.39, 35k PRU (covered gap almost) 64c, 50k BDR @ 59c
Sold FundB: 10k RRL @ 3.38, 10k RRL @ 3.39, 20k OGC @ 1.435, 50k SLR @ 71.5, 50k BDR @ 58.5, 1k NCM @ 11.10, 20k TRY @ 1.62, 17k PNA @ 1.93 and 50k EVN @ 66c, 70k RSG @ 61.5, 35k PRU 64c
This was a disaster but I live to fight another day. More falls in gold and the XGD with aggressive buying in Funds at lows to come also. This will provide leverage to aid the recovery of capital. Remember we are setting up to become wealthy over the coming few years.
3rd July 1:45pm update the Funds bought too early so no point trading them even if I see another dip to the US$1150 level for gold. This was my first target as of mid April and it got there faster than I thought.
Personally I sold into late yesterday, traded some and bought pack partially today on this dip in case we do get an additional rise into this afternoon or tomorrow. If not I have cash to use should we plunge straight into the final low around US$900. I would be surprised to see that so quickly and therefore favor an upside rally after the fall next week.
I am sitting here working on how to deliver additional value to you all this week. If I get the right conditions I may cash up a little so I have a hedge (cash) and ammunition to use in a fall.
1st July 11:30am update now we see some serious bounce as the heavy buyers move in, how striking that the sellers are so much lighter today. The strength should last at least into tomorrow. I favor the domestic producers due to the weaker AUD outlook they will be safer.
Aggressive traders get the change to leverage their positions here in the extreme lows on extreme volatility.
Long term buyers will reap tremendous rewards over the coming few years on purchases in the right stocks at these levels.

The post July 2014 Commentary appeared first on GoldOz.

The legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers is a big buyer here and has been buying for the past few weeks in case that was the bottom. He has sold no gold stating bull markets climb a wall of worry. Small holders will not be lining up to sell gold at the real top they will be lined up buying and this has not happened yet. This is a monumental buying opportunity on quality stocks such as those I have bought in the Funds.
26th June 11:07am I just had a conversation with Les Davis CEO of SLR. Importantly they have immediately responded the the situation with various measures – see their April quarterly. Do your DD on this stock they have the flexibility to generate cash using higher grade ore blocks and stockpiles for the next 18 months. This is vital information in my opinion. They are one of the few elite local gold companies.
25th June special note I am about to load unofficial Newsletter 85 which is a Members only expanded version of the article I released on the WWW last night (GATA, Gold Seek etc). I will notify you here when it is up – I am not a seller here.
25th June this is a bear trap if ever I have seen one. Individual stock options expiry is on the 27th and I am now expecting a sharp rally in gold in the next two weeks. This will be a trade opportunity as difficult conditions will continue until China, the ECB and the USA blink and try to stem the crisis.
The XGD just made a new lower RSI level and has to bounce but the final low is now likely to be next month or early August.
20th June 11:38pm update Just read a great writer Adam Hamilton and while he has not timed the low on gold stocks he does know markets and has developed excellent systems including relationships to 200 dma (daily moving average).
He notes how extreme it is for any market to trade 40% below its own 200dma and so I did the calculation on the XGD now down 48.18% below its 200dma!
Of course there is a limited amount of selling that can be done and then there are no more sellers only buyers. This turns and then the short sellers have to purchase – so up it goes. This is like a law of physics as the energy reverses so must price.
Then markets reverse strongly and the greater the distance from the 200dma the stronger the reversal. I just finished buying today and look forward to this as you all do – those currently invested. Those that are waiting for the reversal to get set – I hope you don’t have long to wait long either.
20th June 10:35pm update I am up watching this unfold. Major tops and bottoms happen quickly as they say.
The market is betting that Fed tapering is here already and needs to settle down and it will however the momentum can push us to lower supports here and a painful wait for the GoldOz Funds. Of course the AUD POG low was far below us in April at A$1281.30. As I write this AUD gold is now a much more comfortable $1414.51 for our domestic producers.
This probably will not help gold stocks in the short term because sentiment is toxic. The XGD finished 180 points above the starting point of the rally that began in 2005 – the prime take off point for this index because that was when AUD gold started to rise.
The crisis in China may be spreading faster than the public knows as the 5 year spread on CDS’s (Credit Default Swaps) has suddenly widened on China by 27.85% to 131.78. This market is now increasing the betting that China will default with China now ranked as a higher chance than Thailand and Malaysia. China has widened more than any other sovereign today.
The yield curve is flattening in the US with shorter term rates closing the gap compared to long term rates. If this inverts it will be a very bad sign the authorities must be in panic mode.
12:10pm update completed purchase 16,600 PNA FundB @ 2.07 and 10k OGC @ 1.43 FundB. I am now set and prepared to face paper losses for what I believe will be a short while – maybe? This is what market lows look like after all.
11:14am completed purchase 50k BDR FundA and 50k BDR FundB all at 65.5c. Low cost, Brazil, pushing cost lower, scale, great upside exploration, do your own DD on this one.
10:49am update I just witnessed 1M RRL offers withdrawn at 72c and 72.5c simultaneously – now that influences people to sell at a lower price and I call that manipulation. Not that I care you just have to ignore the shock and awe applied by the big players and it is a good sign THEY WANT TO STEAL shares at this level. The sharks are circling and I want to place the rest of my capital during the chaos they create. Like the wolves running at the herd designed to scare and scatter so they can feed. We must be very close to bottom with large undisclosed bids (0u is the symbol on the depth) and “possible icebergs” etc scooping up the spoils.
20th June Fed speech highly optimistic on inflation and driving in a fog according to Bill Gross of Pimco (US$2T under management) as the problems are structural rather than cyclic. This move was more about Fx (foreign exchange) than gold as the AUD gold price shot up. Any short sell is another opportunity to buy XGD quality stocks I will complete purchases today. The Fed is trying to get markets to unwind slowly by warning them about taper however conditions are not what they seem – see newsletter 83 when I release I had to delay on FOMC speech until today.

19th 3:16pm update I think what you are seeing is strong accumulation combined with selective forced selling. The brokers know when a large US Fund is moving a parcel that HAS to be sold so they buy as it falls offering a lower and lower support. There is little liquidity so not many competing for the shares in PRU for instance. This will change it was hitting SAR recently and this has stopped as the chart stabilized. Gold down last night as you know but today the buying is stronger than the selling with RRL. RSG, KCN, BDR and TRY up.
11:00am update bought 35k PRU av 83c FundB
10:17am bought 35k PRU @ 85.5 FundA
19th June pre-open gold has fallen again slightly on speculation the Fed will taper. This is rubbish speculation and the gold stocks will not go to zero – not the viable ones which are selling at a deep discount. As we approach the end of the FY I am completing the buying for both Funds. I don’t think the buying gets much better than this as a whole on the sector. I am working on your next Newsletter with essential news on China and Aussie gold stocks.
2:32pm update bought 20k TRY @ 2.05 FundB. P: E 5.6 and yield 4.65% is attractive.
1:28pm update a beautiful small scale cup and handle has formed on RRL today in the 2 min tick chart. I have been telling you time is fractal. Patterns within patterns work short term on short term charts so break above 3.485 just condirmed a break to upside can happen today – on an intra-day basis. The smaller the time frame the less reliable.
18th June 11:33am FundA bought 10k RRL @ 3.46.
Gold looks ready to rise today in the short term – that is on a trading basis but we see it is now at the apex of a flag. FOMC meeting speech could go either way as they discuss the stimulus taper.
14th June 11am the XGD just registered its first rise on open after 6 losing sessions in a row. I am looking to balance the portfolios more now and scouring for new additions however they must have scale, stable or growing production a good balance sheet & low cost or high hedge price to sell their gold.
1:45pm update buy completed 30k RSG @ 0.675 FundB
1:21pm completed purchase 10k RRL @ 3.58 in FundA and 20k RRL average 3.59 in Fund B. Prices are absurd Fund boys trying to break everybody and I just want to buy when they do this!
FundA now holding $98,695 (9.8% cash) and FundB now $142,529 (14.25% cash).
Yield of some gold stocks higher than banks and P: E of RSG is now under 3. Will be revised down but not that bad in my opinion. Perhaps they need to write down NMG for tax benefit?
13th June 1pm the XGD just found the bottom line of a falling wedge. You must all be wondering where the low is – my view is it has to be close. We are now just above the lows of 04 & 05 and not far above the top of 2002 for this index now.
Bought for each Fund 30k OGC @ 1.60, 50k SLR @ 86c, 25k BDR (A) @ 66c and 30k BDR (B) @ 66c
4:22pm update this is a book build process I now have cash: $242,154 in A and $325,330 in B looking to buy SLR, AQG and BDR + more EVN in B to balance for a rally to come. May look at a few less loved producers PNA, more OGC etc just depends on how cheap they present.
12th Jun 4pm A huge amount of old supports in this area of the chart – basement buying so more bids in:
bought 45k RSG FundA @ 71c and 55k RSG (B) @ 71c before 4pm.
4:10pm close of auction update selective purchased to layer back in; bought 30k SLR @ 83.5 FundA and FundB. Note: approx 27% of funds still available FundB and 36% in FundB. I am targeting the lower cost producers.
3:58pm update bought 20k OGC @ 1.75 av FundA & 20k OGC @ 1.745 FundB
10:48am the XGD just hit 2614 pushed below the 2008 low, if this is not blood in the streets I don’t know what is. Gold looks ready to rise on the 30 min chart. COT at extremes now so any short covering could cause a rapid rise in our stocks. Low AUD assists the earnings of Aust based ASX gold producers even more. This looks horrible it must be time to buy as small traders have given up. Working on the worksheet and Educational Portfilio update next day or two as it is finally time.
11th Jun market open – Double and triple bottoms are very important. The Fund boys may push this lower to try to break holders in various stocks – this is how they behave, they are predators and this is not a level playing field. We have to look beyond that at times.
1:08pm update completed bought 50k EVN @ 84.75 FundA and FundB
12:43pm bought 20k PRU @ 1.05 FundB
12:14pm update bought 28k RSG @ 75.5c FundA and 30k RSG @ 75.5c FundB
11:37 report bought 32k RSG @ 75.5c & 20k PRU @ 1.045 FundA
7th Jun 11:25am update the XGD has now hit the low of 2008. Funds are buying this modestly now with stink bids, have to go out for about two hours (blast) will report purchases later.
7th Jun 10:25am update shock to gold sector with unprecedented fall on NCM miles below lower Bollinger Band has already recovered over $1. This sapped confidence of investors initially which may reverse with NCM today. I have stink bids in the market and will day trade this as gold broke that upper resistance out of the pennant. Signals are still short term.
7th Jun 8:30am the call made yesterday was correct on gold, AUD, Euro and USD so I am glad I stayed partly long overnight. This could signal a double buy divergence in the XGD so watch this carefully for strength.
10:50am update the dogs have been running at the pack to scatter and create a minor panic. This is probably a good sign but still high risk on these gold stocks. Remember the pro’s close and the amateurs open the market. RRL, RSG, SLR and PRU all recovered a little could support this theory.
6th June 9am gold is tightly wedged in the pennant formation and could go either way. No hint from the technicals I use. So I looked at the AUD: USD chart and I see the daily could easily head up as we have held a strong support area. The intra-day work I do also shows potential upside for the AUD here which implies USD down and gold upside break. The probability therefore favors a break up out of this pennant based on my technicals.
Against the USD: the Yen looks ready to fall and the Euro may have made a short term upside break so this is very hard to call – mixed signals and hence the pennant.
4th June 7:50am gold behqaving as expected and the stocks showed great signs yesterday. I took profits in trading only to see them continue to run despite the softening of the gold price. I am writing all this up in the next Newsletter as I see buy divergences across many stocks and they are starting to lift. Remaining cautious however left some positions open overnight and the price of gold looks like it will stay firm for todays trade. The momentum is finally with us today.
We shall see how the late afternoon plays out as the pro’s look at the futures for tonight and I will try to update you at the end of the day as I don’t expect to have the letter ready until tomorrow.

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Question from a client: What are your thoughts on SBM? Is there problems within this company or just been sold off due to gold correction? Seemed to have bounced off 51c, Do you think this company is severely oversold?
Answer: I believe the sell off is due to gold and also their Pacific operations; formerly ALD. The market viewed this as a pig of a deal as costs were high – no full disclosure either as things were worse than factored. All gold stocks with a margin are ‘oversold’ at these prices, as lower were factored in on the POG. Market got ahead of itself and panicked. This is why I have not sold much in the way of Fund positions as yet. I may be wrong make your own calls as always. I see a modest recovery and then further falls. A few buy divergences forming and sell-offs less severe on drops in the POG.

2nd May 9:10am will clean this area up today. The pattern is still playing out with considerable accuracy in gold and if this continues this will take 2/1 time for this is the compression factor I had to use for the chart. Remember I said 70 – 75 was shorter due to the fixed POG – well the whole rally in the 70’s was and this bull is not. I expect up to 20 years of bull market now after time studies – the overlay is 12 years of this bull market against 6 in the 70’s. SO the launch of the next rally is two years away. The stocks may launch earlier but only by months. The volatility will be high so I can assist you with valuable trade opportunities and guidance + further education, even diversification strategies if you want to stick around. I hope you do I have a great deal more to share.
6th May we seem to be setting up a similar pattern to the March time period this year. I base this on RSI action and price. This can last over the next four weeks however it is a high risk trade to enter. This fits perfectly with my larger view and should provide some calm exit points so I can lighten up further on the gold stocks. Woolworths is on a sell divergence and can run to a double however I expect soft conditions into the end of the financial year.

1st May 9:45am FML report worse than I even thought but it is clear there is some large player with faith going by the depth. They have enough cash to get through this gold crisis and it is clear DT means business to restructure FML completely. If the bids remain it will be clear this is being supported and the negative result was fully expected.
Our biggest threat on all gold stocks is the USD and Europe believe it or not. Japan – you would expect them to buy gold as a hedge but they sold to lock in profits same as bonds and down came AUD a little. The flow will reverse back to AUD once profits are locked as they do have to hedge again.
Now like any decent analyst I will be looking at PlanB for gold to see if the first scenario does not play out. Then we watch this unfold and do our best to protect ourselves.
1:33pm update go to news area at the top of Members area. Please see special file I have been working on today as part of the next newsletter. I wanted to release it to you all right away.

The post May Commentary appeared first on GoldOz.

23rd April 3:48pm I have worked out exactly where we are at last. The answers have emerged from the shock of the severity of the fall and I can now present the path ahead for you all. Gold will pause maybe for a few more days and then proceed to the 1181 area before consolidating for many months in a range. Some time next year it will break the coming support into the final low. I had suggested we may need to diversify – and this is now proven. The Funds A&B will claw back any capital I can and use this to invest in deep lows on gold and also the yield stocks at key points. I will know the broad areas in time closer to these events but I have worked out how Armstrong figured this out and not by copying him either. I am working on a Newsletter to highlight this and will try to have it finished in the coming days.
The gold stocks are not bouncing as investors try to figure a way out, there are few buyers the liquidity is just not there. FML will fall after breaking 1.7c unless DT pulls something amazing out of his hat. Only low cost producers will be worth looking at for a trade at the coming lows. The second half of the gold rally will be stupendous so if you are down do not fret this is a time to keep a level head.

22nd April we got the bounce in gold to just below that 1427, it hit 1424.8 and then failed. I am lightening up where I can to retain additional money into the bottom to but the low cost producers. Armstrong thinks gold might even probe $900 and soon. There are few companies able to make any money at that price and the share prices would tank. A panic may be coming. There will be some opportune (but wrong) bargain hunting early this week if we are lucky. Coming to May there is no point buying WOW or any stock. I will be sitting on any cash I have and if RRL even heads higher I will exit that last position so I can buy it back cheaper soon.

16th April 9:54am newsletter brief out in a few minutes just getting loaded. All my views and comments in there. I believe a short term bounce into tomorrow will eventuate from a new low on the XGD today. For the nimble only. We should see serious capitulation today and I will be buying, perhaps on the open or by 11am. Only the intra-day charts can show you that. Overall we are rushing at the bottom and the end of the gold rally is a smoke screen – it is NOT here.
17th April 7:19am gold hit 1401.9 last night a rise of $80 intraday and is now settling back. I stated this would happen in the newsletter and so yesterday was a great trading opportunity. I expect we will remain highly volatile into the bottom which may be reached sooner than many expect. With gold likely headed below 1200 it is possible we will see silver under 20 for a short time. Bullion purchases would best wait until then. I will do my best to identify the low for members.

15th April 8:06am I went digging for Armstrongs supports around this level and below. He talks of a directional change in May / June and possible lows (final) at 1465, 1380 and 1150 with no preference for which will be the final support level. He did also mention a support at 1427. Therefore we may get a bounce soon, the size of the liquidation was extreme so volatility may require a large rise within days so wash out the late shorts.
If you must sell do it on a bounce and retain the capital for lower levels, we will be there to pick this. Gold is now in a rush to hit the bottom and this will shake out weak hands. Armstrong clearly states gold is going much higher so if you are caught (like I am in FML for instance) then you may elect to hold through this as I have seen some investors do with a full return of capital within 12 months. I tried to assist one investor who had mental health issues and sold at the bottom in 2008 (before he came to me) – a sobering thing to remember if you are going to hold over the coming months you might be better no to even look.
This is why I have been advocating caution and the lower cost producers, they will NOT go broke.

13th April update I awake to a shock at the magnitude of the liquidation of gold overnight. Remember the sky has not fallen in, the the fundamentals have not changed for gold. The correction is going lower and it appears to be in a rush now to get to the bottom. This is actually good for the gold bull and painful at the same time.
Now you will understand why I have been so concerned and only looking for a bounce here and there. Now you will understand why I have been directing you all to Martin Armstrong – here is what he said on the 1st January 2013 it is important:
“We have a very serious problem. In gold, everyone is loaded to the gills expecting hyperinflation that will never materialize and governments are getting outright nasty. We have THREE Monthly Bearish Reversals that have now lined up in gold at 15470, 15413, and 15323. We have a huge gap from there to 11589 and this is not real good. Gold closed 2012 higher than it did for 2011 on the 13th year up. That is by no means good at all. If these reversals are elected, look out below. We may have to clean house before gold can resume the uptrend.”
There are other support levels above $1158.90. However low it goes it will happen quickly now. We might even see the low before the end of April this year – this month. When we look back at this correction in a year or two we will wonder what the fuss was about.
I will not be selling in panic and the Funds A&B will take advantage of those that do. I feel sorry for those who are leveraged as they will not have that option. I am personally invested in a few goldies; RRL still very profitable right to the bottom looming, FML (bit stuck like many) but has loads of cash so will not fail – quite the opposite, will be opportunistic during this event, and RMS also 50% cash and will take advantage. I will cover RMS this week for you all.

11th April 9am The Fed “accidently” releases discussion on the continuation of the stimulus and gold gets wacked. Classic manipulation as Goldman Sucks needs to unwind more gold shorts – they do the bidding of the Fed and are TBTF – too big to fail. So we are volatile and not out of the woods but I think this will come in waves of ‘gold up’ then smash the stop loss positions. The action is like the bottom last year still. We shall see how the stocks react today. Sorry research taking longer than expected on this Newsletter but I will have it to you by tomorrow at the latest.
Did you notice the lower cost producers moved the most??

8th April 9:02am well Friday was clearly ‘stabilization’ and Friday night the shorts were bought back in gold’s offshort trading pushing up the price from the 1540 support. We did not test 1530 (yet) and I do not like the XGD daily failing to print a buy divergence. Having said that the bounce I have been expecting is finally here.
9:55am the stocks that bounce hardest (if this comes to pass) will be the lower cost companies.

4th April 8:40am the rush of cash out of Europe is pushing up the USD even as numbers in the USA fail to meet expectations. Non farm jobs came in less than expected and even crude oil inventories went up. My inside month chart failed to play out we have just pushed lower. We are soon to test the 1530 level on gold by the look of it and our AUD is staying high because the RBA is too stupid to see the huge writing on the wall and drop our OCR. Things are NOT all better but the spin is powerful and people are being herded in the direction the media what them to go! The bargains will be stupendous when this bottoms as gold will resume its bull run but where is the bottom? I will look at deep supports for the gold stocks – anything can happen here.

3rd April 9:47am gold still following the same pattern, I am finishing off a newsletter for you today and a chart set in the next two days. The XGD can still print a buy signal however we need to see muted selling to reduce the fall on the RSI. We are at a critical level so I will stay in close contact with you all this week. I may even start buying.
2:28pm update this day correlates to the end of the first stage of the Mercury retrograde period. This is just a curiosity to me and I had mentioned this was a potential (?). More importantly the XGD just hit 4000.3 which was my target support.
Bought 10k RRL @ $3.88 FundA and 10k @ $3.89 FundB, note I also purchased some RRL at $3.88 personally. This may not be the bottom I am still holding some cash but this is very deeply oversold now and ready to bounce.

2nd April 8:56am hope you had a safe happy Easter. The XGD needs to pull up and reverse with the RSI in a strong divergence here. That would generate a buy signal if it occurs. Important support is the 4000 level. Europe has not generated fresh interest in gold as yet but North Korea might provide some demand if push comes to shove. A new leader looking to prove himself is not a good omen. I am running my ruler over SAR this morning on important historical supports in this area. Trading below asset value as gold stocks get punished.

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27th March 7:30pm I am back and the ‘book talk up’ I warned against was a good call at least for now. No move in gold or stocks other than down, as suggested by GoldOz the bottom was not in yet. After a flat price move the XGD has failed to gain traction however a buy signal set up is possible here. I am still holding that cash and am ready to move. Confidence in the banking system is shocked and perhaps a delayed reaction. The gold stocks are certainly cheap relative to gold but we need a catalyst. As I have said Europe initially good for USD as money flows out and this is negative for gold and gold stocks!

25th March 11:27am this is getting boring! No volatility as the XGD bounces up at the lows of 2012 in a narrow band. The RSI is sitting just below 50 now. Gold looking rudderless like the ALP. I am off to Canberra for a day or two will still keep my eye on the market and report if necessary. There is no point guessing we need some movement to confirm direction at this important point.

20th March gold has confirmed this divergence and so has the XGD so the bounce I have called should gather increased strength. Europe is helping. This is not the start of the rally yet in my opinion however it is setting up a useful RSI spike from which a larger divergence can form. In the meantime enjoy a lift and let us see if I can warn you when the bounce is completing. Trading income is fantastic in these situations so enjoy if this is your strategy, as it is mine while I await the next pull back. RRL is still my favorite and I am looking at RSG for trade opportunities.

19th March the world waits to see if an important perception (mainstream) on banking will be smashed in Europe. Gold up a tad and XGD is trading according to my sentiment; “which way will it go”. On a personal basis I am trading while I wait to see. The RSI on the XGD is more enthusiastic than the index price having me suspect the break will be to the upside. We are not in the clear yet I hope you are all holding cash and have been since I sold down back in October. It is essential to be nimble in this market at present.

15th March the FML deal to secure the rest of the former CRE is a done deal with Stone and this will force the roll over of the other holders. This releases a $50M (approx) net tax loss for future use and secures over 400k ounces Au for $6M. More importantly it removes one uncertainty. Watch DT march through all outstanding issues in this manner and prove a trend to the market over time. I have personally added more FML at a share price under cash in the bank, happy to do so and note – no fear they are not going into administration with $200M in the bank.
I am waiting for confirmation on the gold price before I more to a fully invested position or sell quickly to enable more purchases on a pull back in the market.

12th March I have been providing more regular Newsletters so as to remain up to date however today I see the bounce I have been expecting is pathetic. There has to be a reason. There is extreme risk in this market of a sharp capitulation on a run down to 1530 area. We have to see if this holds or not. Any bump up here might be used to lighten if you have no cash to take advantage of the bonanza to come.

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